Positions
Judgment stated as judgment. Every call I make in public goes here with its date, where it was first stated, what would change my mind, and a review date. Later it is scored: held, revised or withdrawn. Nothing is quietly deleted.
2 positions · 1 open · 1 held · 0 revised · 0 withdrawn
| Dated | Position | What would change my mind | Review | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2026 | Completion and retention come apart. A slate optimised against captured signal gets very good at holding attention inside a title and has no purchase on whether someone is still a subscriber next month. Outcome: RevenueCat's 28 August 2026 data: short-drama apps convert about three and a half times better than other entertainment apps and retain about four times worse at six months, on the smaller subset that reports six-month data. The claim held on the first public test. | Resubscription data for micro-drama showing that the person who lapses after six months comes back for the next title that catches them — then 1.8% six-month retention is describing something less alarming than it sounds; nobody has published it, and that case stays open until somebody does. Or evidence that price dominates cancellation, in which case slate composition is a second-order effect and I am over-weighting it. | 1 Dec 2026 | held |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Data does not tell you what to make. It tells you how to make it and how to be less wrong, because the part of the outcome that matters never enters the log. | Evidence that the part you can't capture is a rounding error — if it is, you can ignore it and get on with modelling. If it's where the outcome actually lives, then a system built only on the captured part is measuring the shadow rather than the thing. | 30 Oct 2026 | open |